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High Variance Bias

UserPost

3:42 pm
June 25, 2010


jimmy

New Member

posts 2

Through watching your excellent video series on Stox I've managed to gain a full understanding of when I tilt. When I'm in a marginal spot or I'm just plain stuck, I will consistently choose the highest variance option. If I were able to change this tendency to consistently choosing the lowest variance option when I'm unsure what to do there is no doubt my win-rate would skyrocket. The amount of supporting evidence is overwhelming – and yet I seem completely incapable of helping myself! Even when I write it down as a rule I still find myself doing the opposite. I know you mentioned writing down your triggers and remaining aware of them through the session preparing in advance when you predict a trigger could be imminent. The problem I've found with this is that I usually find myself stuck because my opponent has done something I would have never predicted – i.e. the spot appears suddenly out the blue.

It seems like remaining mindful of this high variance bias throughout a full session is impossible for me. Thinking about how to solve this, I was reminded about advice for people beginners practicing meditation – starting off doing just a couple of minutes and then slowly increasing the length. I tried applying this to poker starting with 10 minutes and it just seems completely impractical. Sitting down, opening up 4 decent tables, playing for 10 minutes, leaving, having a break, repeat – I've found it really tilting and, as someone who plays professionally, I think it impacts too much on the volume I'm able to put in.

Any help much appriciated,

Jimmy

3:52 pm
June 26, 2010


jimmy

New Member

posts 2

Post edited 3:58 pm – June 26, 2010 by jimmy


Just wanted to clarify with an analogy:

You're at a train station you're unfamiliar with. You're pretty sure you're on the right line. A train pulls up. It's either going in the direction you want to be heading or it's going in the opposite direction. If you get on it and it's going the right way you'll reach your destination in no time. If you're wrong, however, it's going to take twice as long as if you'd just stayed on the platform.

You choose to gamble every time and soon realise you're going in the opposite direction much more often than the right direction. You quickly realise that the decision you're being faced with is not in fact a 50:50 decision – it's probably more like 75:25 – but, in the heat of the moment, you find yourself skewing the facts in such a way to make it seem like a 50:50 gamble (i.e. convincing yourself you're definately on the right line) and then choosing to take the coin-flip.

You're now aware of this gambling compulsion you have and yet, in the heat of the moment, can't stop your compulsion from taking over your thought process… You can't stop yourself getting on the train!

Risk-taking is a good quality, I know, but I'm taking it too far. It's like I'm addicted to risk and so will convince myself a risk is worth taking when in fact it's not – e.g. skewing the facts so that I figure I have a 55% chance of success when in fact it's only 25%…

11:34 am
June 29, 2010


Jared

Admin

posts 72

Awareness is key and I'm glad my series, and the other efforts you've taken to fix this problem have helped build it.  It sounds like the next step is just as unclear as realizing how risky your play is in the moment, so let me know if this helps.

Part of the reason why your logical or aware mind isn't enough to control this is because the emotion or the drive toward high variance play is so strong that it overwhelms the mind.  You'll recall from the videos that when emotions rise too high they shut off your logical/aware mind.  At that time you revert back to unconscious comptence – and everything that you are currently in the process of learning is gone.  You're left with what you know best, even though that's clearly not enough. 

Part of what makes this tricky and may not have come through clearly in the video (in part bc my understanding of this point has improved greatly), is that these old habits – high variance play for example – are hard wired into your unconscious competence.  It's a skill that you are clearly very very good at.  To correct it, doesn't just mean that you know what is correct, and try to eliminate the old.  You can't nor would you want to eliminate the old knowledge, and you instead want to upgrade it like an old software program.  To upgrade the old knowledge you need to break down why it is flawed and correct that directly.  I'll help you do that, because there's very often an emotional/mental game flaw in there that players often miss. I

If you put yourself in those moments where you're caught up playing high variance style, what's your motive or intent behind it?  Why do you chose that style?  What benefits has it brought in the past?


From there, I'll offer a clearer strategy that goes beyond just being aware.  I agree – trying to constantly monitor it, is definitely not +EV or practical.  


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